作者:侯丁 来源:原创 时间:2019-09-21 阅读:7338655 次

刷屏了!楼市爆出大消息:全国取消限售第一城诞生!


????秘姐有话说:文丨来源:21财闻汇综合自:中国网地产、第一财经、券商中国(quanshangcn)作者:陈冬生、刘晓博说财经(liuxb929)、菏泽市住房和城乡建设局版权归原作,若有异议,烦联系后台~!菏泽代表了全国三四线城市尤其是地级市的市场。过去菏泽对于一些房价上涨过快的县区,是有两年的限售期的,但现在此类政策取消了,某种程度上购房的压力开始变小。楼市“取消限售”的第一城诞生。12月18日,菏泽市住房和城乡建设局发布了11条通知、公示,其中包含《关于推进全市棚户区改造和促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的通知》。《通知》第六条明确表示,取消新购住房限制转让措施。取消2017年11月6日出台限售政策:“对主城区和住房成交量高、房价稳控压力大的县区实行新购住房限制转让措施,即所购买的新建商品住房和二手住房取得产权证书至少满2年后方可上市交易,非本地居民购房限制转让时间不少于3年”的规定。全国取消限售第一城诞生了!12月18日,山东省菏泽市住房和城乡建设局发布《关于推进全市棚户区改造和促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的通知》,第六条明确规定:取消新购住房限制转让措施。此次调整距离政策出台仅有一年多时间。2017年11月6日,《菏泽市人民政府办公室关于进一步加强房地产市场调控工作的通知》,其中第14条规定:对主城区和住房成交量高、房价稳控压力大的县区实行新购住房限制转让措施,即所购买的新建商品住房和二手住房取得产权证书至少满2年后方可上市交易,非本地居民购房限制转让时间不少于3年。各地要针对二手房交易监管存在的问题进行认真梳理,督促相关部门逐一整改,确保各项措施落地生效。昨天的通知还称,降低市区商品房预售资金监管额度。对实力强、信誉好的企业不再监管,其它企业在现有的市区商品房预售资金监管标准的基础上,降低一半执行,最低可放宽到监管额度的10%。同时,商品房预售资金进入监管账户后,不再要求项目监管资金达到既定监管额度后,才可提取,只要求留存够监管资金比例,即可使用。严跃进认为,菏泽此次取消限售政策,信号意义极强,可以认为是2018年楼市政策放松的第一枪。其意义和2014年南宁北部湾取消限购的意义类似,都是楼市政策从紧到宽松的重要变化。此类政策看似在某个文件中“不经意”地提及了一句,但往往会被认为当前很多城市试图放松的第一枪。预计此类城市的政策会造成很强的示范效应,在因城施策的政策框架下,预计后续类似政策放松的城市还会继续增多,尤其是会从限售政策进行松绑。值得注意的是,今年1月5日,兰州市住房保障和房产管理局取消了西固区、九州开发区、高坪偏远区域的住房限购政策,是首个在部分区域解除限购的城市。此类政策取消,对于后续市场的影响,严跃进看来,将是很大的。此前包括兰州也有过各类政策的调整,当时也引起关注,但没有形成太多的模仿。而菏泽取消限售,在当前市场基本面下,预计模仿的城市会增加。此类政策应该说对于市场交易的影响还是存在的,尤其是会减少一些看空情绪,对于当前下行的楼市来说是有托底效应的,至少楼市看空的情绪会进一步减少。菏泽代表了全国三四线城市尤其是地级市的市场。从11月份《全国百城库存报告》可以看出,全国三四线城市住宅库存在连续38个月同比下跌之后,目前首次出现同比正增长现象。其含义是,三四线城市过去库存消化速度是比较快的,而现在因为包括棚改政策调整、市场需求透支等因素影响,实际上库存基本面在发生变化。从去库存周期也可以看出,近期三四线城市的去库存周期开始从底部反弹了。山东菏泽取消限售,是楼市调控转向?从下图来看,新房和二手房的价格是相对平稳或是上行的。土地转让情况如何呢?从上半年情况来看,无论从土地成交面积,还是成交金额,菏泽都堪称后来者居上,跻身前30。上图是今年前三季度,山东各城市GDP增长情况,可以看出菏泽增速达到了8.2%,是全省最快的。另据“大众网”报道,今年前三季度菏泽市“一般公共预算收入”增幅居山东省第1位,“规模以上工业增加值”增幅居全省第2位;财政收入314.6亿元,同比增长25.2%,增幅居全省第2位;其中税收收入305.25亿元,增长25.37%。截至8月末,金融机构存贷款余额增幅分别居全省第1和第4位。前三季度,菏泽“工业用电量”同比增长16.5%,增幅较上半年提高约3个百分点。也就是说,菏泽经济增长势头,至少在山东省是名列前茅的。短期看,压力并不是太大。易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进称,菏泽代表了全国三四线城市尤其是地级市的市场。过去菏泽对于一些房价上涨过快的县区,是有两年的限售期的,但现在此类政策取消了,某种程度上购房的压力开始变小。会有更多城市追随菏泽,也取消“限售”吗?知名财经评论员刘晓博认为,在限购、限贷、限价、限售、限商的所谓“五限”里,最应该取消的就是“限售”。住宅兼具“生活必需品”和“资产”双重属性,在特殊时期,政府“限购”、“限贷”都是可以理解的,“限价”也未尝不可。“限售”涉嫌限制了居民的财产权,至于“限商”必要性也不太大。整体来看:一线城市、强二线城市,未来全面取消“限购”、“限价”、“限贷”的可能性不大,即便房地产税出台后,都可能取消不了,只能在特殊时期放松而已。限售、限商则有可能取消。三四五线城市,未来一两年取消“限购”、“限贷”、“限价”、“限售”的可能会有所增加,毕竟这类城市中的一部分,其人口增量有限、稳增长压力较大。另外,菏泽的限售政策取消,至少说明了两点政策动向。第一、因地制宜依然是当前政策制定的出发点,各地可以根据具体情况进行调整政策。第二、政策取消也会循序渐进,会从类似限售政策等取消开始,而包括限购等政策,可能后续还会相对谨慎。此类政策取消,对于后续市场的影响是很大的。实际上此前包括兰州也有过各类政策的调整,当时也引起关注,但没有形成太多的模仿。而菏泽取消限售,在当前市场基本面下,预计模仿的城市会增加。此类政策应该说对于市场交易的影响还是存在的,尤其是会减少一些看空情绪,对于当前下行的楼市来说是有托底效应的,至少楼市看空的情绪会进一步减少。未来房地产政策走向引关注7月31日,中共中央政治局召开会议提出,要下决心解决好房地产市场问题,坚持因城施策,促进供求平衡,合理引导预期,整治市场秩序,坚决遏制房价上涨。在此前后,深圳等地持续出台“三价合一”、“限售”等轻量级的行政手段,加码调控力度的预期管理,警惕投资投机情绪的死灰复燃。调控政策之下,新房滞销,房企融资渠道不畅,今年全国土地流拍数量也大幅增加,甚至超过近年来土地市场最冷的2014年。10月中旬,广州传出增城、花都、南沙取消限价限售政策的消息,这被市场迅速解读为“限价放松”。随后官方人士回应对外限售没有取消。与此同时,其它地市也发布人才新政,对人才落户购房给予补贴,曲线争取放松空间。就连银行也尝试下调房贷利率,例如招商银行深圳分行近日把首套按揭利率从基准上浮15%下调至上浮12%。近日,国家发改委发布《关于支持优质企业直接融资的通知》(下称《通知》),其对房地产行业融资的影响也引发了市场的高度关注。而今年以来交易所地产公司债审批速度也已加快,前11月通过交易所审批的地产公司债额度同比大幅增加,《通知》的下发是否可以看作房地产融资进一步放松的信号?据第一财经报道,第一太平戴维斯华北区高级董事、评估部负责人胡建明表示,虽然国家发改委支持优质企业发企业债,但具体分析发现,按照中央精神,目前只支持有关棚户区改造、保障性住房、租赁住房等领域的项目,并不支持商业地产项目,不能因此认为房企融资开始松动了。华创证券分析师袁豪分析称,目前调控政策已见成效,政策无从紧必要,同时经济也存在波动压力,目前形势下稳定或更为关键。他预计后续房地产市场政策环境有所改善。今年的10月31日和12月13日的两次中央政治局会议,在研究和部署经济工作时只字未提房地产。张大伟认为,连续两次政治局会议未提及房地产内容,对于房地产市场而言,意味着调控政策方向不会发生改变。从11~12月整体看,房地产政策基本平稳。京东金融首席经济学家沈建光预计,政府仍会坚持房住不炒的表态,同时强调房地产长效机制的确立。考虑到当前房地产销售回落、国内房地产企业贷款与按揭贷款增速仍在下降,预计明年房地产市场仍将整体处于调整通道。摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家、研究部负责人章俊对第一财经表示,考虑到未来基建补短板的稳增长效应逐步显现,预计至少年内和明年上半年之前,房地产调控立场和政策不会有明显变化,其间房地产投资增速会持续下行。而明年年中之后是否会重新调整房地产政策?章俊预计,“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”这一政策底线不会变,但可能会调整部分城市限购限售,放松首套房的首付比、认贷条件和利率等具体政策。附:菏泽文件的“印刷版”(来源:公众号“菏泽信息港”):来源:菏泽市住房和城乡建设局文章观点仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场;文中投资建议仅供参考。本文完

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zhang xian xiang. qi han yi shi, san si xian cheng shi guo qu ku cun xiao hua su du shi bi jiao kuai de, er xian zai yin wei bao kuo peng gai zheng ce tiao zheng shi chang xu qiu tou zhi deng yin su ying xiang, shi ji shang ku cun ji ben mian zai fa sheng bian hua. cong qu ku cun zhou qi ye ke yi kan chu, jin qi san si xian cheng shi de qu ku cun zhou qi kai shi cong di bu fan dan le. shan dong he ze qu xiao xian shou, shi lou shi tiao kong zhuan xiang? cong xia tu lai kan, xin fang he er shou fang de jia ge shi xiang dui ping wen huo shi shang xing de. tu di zhuan rang qing kuang ru he ne? cong shang ban nian qing kuang lai kan, wu lun cong tu di cheng jiao mian ji, hai shi cheng jiao jin e, he ze dou kan cheng hou lai zhe ju shang, ji shen qian 30. shang tu shi jin nian qian san ji du, shan dong ge cheng shi GDP zeng zhang qing kuang, ke yi kan chu he ze zeng su da dao le 8. 2, shi quan sheng zui kuai de. ling ju" da zhong wang" bao dao, jin nian qian san ji du he ze shi" yi ban gong gong yu suan shou ru" zeng fu ju shan dong sheng di 1 wei," gui mo yi shang gong ye zeng jia zhi" zeng fu ju quan sheng di 2 wei cai zheng shou ru 314. 6 yi yuan, tong bi zeng zhang 25. 2, zeng fu ju quan sheng di 2 wei qi zhong shui shou shou ru 305. 25 yi yuan, zeng zhang 25. 37. jie zhi 8 yue mo, jin rong ji gou cun dai kuan yu e zeng fu fen bie ju quan sheng di 1 he di 4 wei. qian san ji du, he ze" gong ye yong dian liang" tong bi zeng zhang 16. 5, zeng fu jiao shang ban nian ti gao yue 3 ge bai fen dian. ye jiu shi shuo, he ze jing ji zeng zhang shi tou, zhi shao zai shan dong sheng shi ming lie qian mao de. duan qi kan, ya li bing bu shi tai da. yi ju yan jiu yuan zhi ku zhong xin yan jiu zong jian yan yue jin cheng, he ze dai biao le quan guo san si xian cheng shi you qi shi di ji shi de shi chang. guo qu he ze dui yu yi xie fang jia shang zhang guo kuai de xian qu, shi you liang nian de xian shou qi de, dan xian zai ci lei zheng ce qu xiao le, mou zhong cheng du shang gou fang de ya li kai shi bian xiao. hui you geng duo cheng shi zhui sui he ze, ye qu xiao" xian shou" ma? zhi ming cai jing ping lun yuan liu xiao bo ren wei, zai xian gou xian dai xian jia xian shou xian shang de suo wei" wu xian" li, zui ying gai qu xiao de jiu shi" xian shou". zhu zhai jian ju" sheng huo bi xu pin" he" zi chan" shuang chong shu xing, zai te shu shi qi, zheng fu" xian gou"" xian dai" dou shi ke yi li jie de," xian jia" ye wei chang bu ke." xian shou" she xian xian zhi le ju min de cai chan quan, zhi yu" xian shang" bi yao xing ye bu tai da. zheng ti lai kan: yi xian cheng shi qiang er xian cheng shi, wei lai quan mian qu xiao" xian gou"" xian jia"" xian dai" de ke neng xing bu da, ji bian fang di chan shui chu tai hou, dou ke neng qu xiao bu liao, zhi neng zai te shu shi qi fang song er yi. xian shou xian shang ze you ke neng qu xiao. san si wu xian cheng shi, wei lai yi liang nian qu xiao" xian gou"" xian dai"" xian jia"" xian shou" de ke neng hui you suo zeng jia, bi jing zhe lei cheng shi zhong de yi bu fen, qi ren kou zeng liang you xian wen zeng zhang ya li jiao da. ling wai, he ze de xian shou zheng ce qu xiao, zhi shao shuo ming liao liang dian zheng ce dong xiang. di yi yin di zhi yi yi ran shi dang qian zheng ce zhi ding de chu fa dian, ge di ke yi gen ju ju ti qing kuang jin xing tiao zheng zheng ce. di er zheng ce qu xiao ye hui xun xu jian jin, hui cong lei si xian shou zheng ce deng qu xiao kai shi, er bao kuo xian gou deng zheng ce, ke neng hou xu hai hui xiang dui jin shen. ci lei zheng ce qu xiao, dui yu hou xu shi chang de ying xiang shi hen da de. shi ji shang ci qian bao kuo lan zhou ye you guo ge lei zheng ce de tiao zheng, dang shi ye yin qi guan zhu, dan mei you xing cheng tai duo de mo fang. er he ze qu xiao xian shou, zai dang qian shi chang ji ben mian xia, yu ji mo fang de cheng shi hui zeng jia. ci lei zheng ce ying gai shuo dui yu shi chang jiao yi de ying xiang hai shi cun zai de, you qi shi hui jian shao yi xie kan kong qing xu, dui yu dang qian xia xing de lou shi lai shuo shi you tuo di xiao ying de, zhi shao lou shi kan kong de qing xu hui jin yi bu jian shao. wei lai fang di chan zheng ce zou xiang yin guan zhu 7 yue 31 ri, zhong gong zhong yang zheng zhi ju zhao kai hui yi ti chu, yao xia jue xin jie jue hao fang di chan shi chang wen ti, jian chi yin cheng shi ce, cu jin gong qiu ping heng, he li yin dao yu qi, zheng zhi shi chang zhi xu, jian jue e zhi fang jia shang zhang. zai ci qian hou, shen zhen deng di chi xu chu tai" san jia he yi"" xian shou" deng qing liang ji de xing zheng shou duan, jia ma tiao kong li du de yu qi guan li, jing ti tou zi tou ji qing xu de si hui fu ran. tiao kong zheng ce zhi xia, xin fang zhi xiao, fang qi rong zi qu dao bu chang, jin nian quan guo tu di liu pai shu liang ye da fu zeng jia, shen zhi chao guo jin nian lai tu di shi chang zui leng de 2014 nian. 10 yue zhong xun, guang zhou chuan chu zeng cheng hua du nan sha qu xiao xian jia xian shou zheng ce de xiao xi, zhe bei shi chang xun su jie du wei" xian jia fang song". sui hou guan fang ren shi hui ying dui wai xian shou mei you qu xiao. yu ci tong shi, qi ta di shi ye fa bu ren cai xin zheng, dui ren cai luo hu gou fang ji yu bu tie, qu xian zheng qu fang song kong jian. jiu lian yin hang ye chang shi xia diao fang dai li lv, li ru zhao shang yin hang shen zhen fen hang jin ri ba shou tao an jie li lv cong ji zhun shang fu 15 xia diao zhi shang fu 12. jin ri, guo jia fa gai wei fa bu guan yu zhi chi you zhi qi ye zhi jie rong zi de tong zhi xia cheng tong zhi, qi dui fang di chan hang ye rong zi de ying xiang ye yin fa le shi chang de gao du guan zhu. er jin nian yi lai jiao yi suo di chan gong si zhai shen pi su du ye yi jia kuai, qian 11 yue tong guo jiao yi suo shen pi de di chan gong si zhai e du tong bi da fu zeng jia, tong zhi de xia fa shi fou ke yi kan zuo fang di chan rong zi jin yi bu fang song de xin hao? ju di yi cai jing bao dao, di yi tai ping dai wei si hua bei qu gao ji dong shi ping gu bu fu ze ren hu jian ming biao shi, sui ran guo jia fa gai wei zhi chi you zhi qi ye fa qi ye zhai, dan ju ti fen xi fa xian, an zhao zhong yang jing shen, mu qian zhi zhi chi you guan peng hu qu gai zao bao zhang xing zhu fang zu lin zhu fang deng ling yu de xiang mu, bing bu zhi chi shang ye di chan xiang mu, bu neng yin ci ren wei fang qi rong zi kai shi song dong le. hua chuang zheng quan fen xi shi yuan hao fen xi cheng, mu qian tiao kong zheng ce yi jian cheng xiao, zheng ce wu cong jin bi yao, tong shi jing ji ye cun zai bo dong ya li, mu qian xing shi xia wen ding huo geng wei guan jian. ta yu ji hou xu fang di chan shi chang zheng ce huan jing you suo gai shan. jin nian de 10 yue 31 ri he 12 yue 13 ri de liang ci zhong yang zheng zhi ju hui yi, zai yan jiu he bu shu jing ji gong zuo shi zhi zi wei ti fang di chan. zhang da wei ren wei, lian xu liang ci zheng zhi ju hui yi wei ti ji fang di chan nei rong, dui yu fang di chan shi chang er yan, yi wei zhe tiao kong zheng ce fang xiang bu hui fa sheng gai bian. cong 11 12 yue zheng ti kan, fang di chan zheng ce ji ben ping wen. jing dong jin rong shou xi jing ji xue jia shen jian guang yu ji, zheng fu reng hui jian chi fang zhu bu chao de biao tai, tong shi qiang diao fang di chan chang xiao ji zhi di que li. kao lv dao dang qian fang di chan xiao shou hui luo guo nei fang di chan qi ye dai kuan yu an jie dai kuan zeng su reng zai xia jiang, yu ji ming nian fang di chan shi chang reng jiang zheng ti chu yu tiao zheng tong dao. mo gen shi dan li hua xin zheng quan shou xi jing ji xue jia yan jiu bu fu ze ren zhang jun dui di yi cai jing biao shi, kao lv dao wei lai ji jian bu duan ban de wen zeng chang xiao ying zhu bu xian xian, yu ji zhi shao nian nei he ming nian shang ban nian zhi qian, fang di chan tiao kong li chang he zheng ce bu hui you ming xian bian hua, qi jian fang di chan tou zi zeng su hui chi xu xia xing. er ming nian nian zhong zhi hou shi fou hui chong xin tiao zheng fang di chan zheng ce? zhang jun yu ji," fang zi shi yong lai zhu de, bu shi yong lai chao de" zhe yi zheng ce di xian bu hui bian, dan ke neng hui tiao zheng bu fen cheng shi xian gou xian shou, fang song shou tao fang de shou fu bi ren dai tiao jian he li lv deng ju ti zheng ce. fu: he ze wen jian de" yin shua ban" lai yuan: gong zhong hao" he ze xin xi gang": lai yuan: he ze shi zhu fang he cheng xiang jian she ju wen zhang guan dian jin dai biao zuo zhe guan dian, bu dai biao ben gong zhong hao li chang wen zhong tou zi jian yi jin gong can kao. ben wen wan


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